By MEGAN MCCLAIN
Redlands Daily Facts

REDLANDS, Calif. — On Thursday, millions of people around Southern California will drop, cover and hold on for two minutes as part of the largest earthquake drill in history.

Special Section: The Great ShakeOut 2008

At 10 a.m. around 500,000 people from San Bernardino County will participate, and more than 5 million people are registered in Southern California for the Great California ShakeOut through schools, businesses, government agencies or faith-based organizations to participate in the event.

The Great California ShakeOut was organized by the Earthquake Country Alliance, a group of earthquake professionals, civic leaders, businesses and emergency managers.

The ShakeOut drill's intent is to practice for a 7.8 magnitude earthquake. The most recent large earthquake was the July 29 Chino Hills earthquake, which registered a 5.4 on the Richter Scale and was centered in Chino Hills.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, California has a 99.7 percent chance of having a 6.7 or higher earthquake in the next 30 years. The southern San Andreas has a 59 percent chance in the next 30 years to generate at least one magnitude 6.7 quake or larger for the entire California region. The fault runs along the base of the San Bernardino Mountains, through the Cajon Pass and up along the coast.

Russ Johnson, industry director of public safety and homeland security at ESRI in Redlands, stressed the importance of people being ready for a natural disaster such as the shakeout's scenario instead of waiting for the government to take action after one occurs.

Johnson has 30 years of experience in emergency and public safety work for the government.

"If the kind of earthquake hits as the (ShakeOut's) exercise portrays if people are dependent on the government to support them, they are really going to be disappointed. People need to be as self-sufficient as they can for a minimum of 72 hours, and then probably longer," Johnson said.

The scenario for ShakeOut is based on a scientific report that was developed by a team of more than 300 scientists and engineers led by Lucy Jones, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

"We picked one particular earthquake to be able to help people understand what a big earthquake is like. It's not saying that's going to be the next earthquake. It's saying by picking one, we can really look at the details of what an earthquake would mean for us."

According to the ShakeOut scenario, the shaking caused by the 7.8 magnitude earthquake would last two minutes. With its close proximity to the fault, the Inland Empire is one of the areas projected to have the hardest shaking, and the scenario concluded an earthquake of that size would cause almost 2,000 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damage and have long-lasting social and economic disruption.

The scenario has two versions: the 312-page study put together by the U.S. Geological Survey and a narrative that spans from 10 minutes before the quake to a year afterward.

"We aren't saying it's going to be just like this. We're saying the San Andreas is a really likely place and this is a really plausible San Andreas earthquake, and point being is to understand what generically a big earthquake's like so we can better get ready for it," Jones said.

To help ShakeOut participants prepare for the drill, the Great California ShakeOut has posted audio and video files as well as technical drill resources for emergency managers, schools, organizations and government officials.

There is also "Beat the Quake," an online game that asks how to prepare a home for an earthquake, and then simulates the damage to items based on one's answers. There is also information for "Aftershock," a simulation scenario to start after the Nov. 13 drill.

In addition to the 10 a.m. drill, there are a number of public events throughout Southern California.

The San Bernardino County Museum is participating in the drill and is offering related activities between 9:30 a.m. and 1 p.m. Thursday to the public.

Brad Mitzelfelt, San Bernardino County 1st District supervisor, who is co-chairman of the San Bernardino ShakeOut campaign along with ESRI's president Jack Dangermond, will speak at the museum.

Senior curator Kathleen Springer will show a presentation of the ShakeOut scenario describing the effects of the scenario's hypothetical 7.8 magnitude earthquake at the San Andreas fault. Springer will also show a video simulation of the earthquake.

The American Red Cross, San Bernardino County Fire Department programs, ESRI and Community Emergency Resource Team trailers will be among the displays offered to the public to learn about earthquake resources in the area.

For more information on ShakeOut see Special Section: The Great ShakeOut 2008 or visit www.shakeout.org. For more information on the museum's program on Nov. 13, visit http://www.sbcounty.gov/museum

Copyright 2008 ProQuest Information and Learning
Copyright 2008 Los Angeles Newspaper Group